Indian refiners are likely to import 2-2.2 million barrels per day of Russian crude oil in June - the highest in the last two years and more than the total volumes bought from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Kuwait, preliminary data by global trade analytics firm Kpler showed.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, experienced a significant downturn as escalating tensions in West Asia led to a sharp surge in crude oil prices, coupled with fresh foreign fund outflows and a weakening rupee.
India will maintain multiple sources for crude oil purchases and diversify them to ensure stability in the supply chain with national interests remaining the "guiding factor" for the procurement, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said.
Indian benchmark equity indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed mixed on Friday. While a drop in crude oil prices offered some relief, weakness in IT stocks and several Tata Group counters, including a significant dip in Tata Chemicals and ongoing boardroom issues at Tata Sons, limited a broader market recovery.
Historically, India was a major buyer of Iranian crude, importing significant volumes of Iranian light and heavy grades due to strong refinery compatibility and favourable commercial terms.
Global oil prices fell on Thursday to their lowest levels since before the outbreak of the Iran conflict, offering a significant economic tailwind for India, the world's third-largest crude importer, by easing inflation risks, reducing the import bill and improving the government's fiscal position.
India's net oil import bill could widen to $101-104 billion in current fiscal from $96.1 billion in 2023-24 and any escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict could impart an upward pressure on the value of imports, ICRA said on Tuesday. The domestic rating agency said based on its analysis, lower value of Russian oil imports is estimated to have led to savings of $7.9 billion in 11 months (April-February) of 2023-24, up from $5.1 billion in 2022-23.
Russian shipments averaged 1.67 million barrels per day in January compared to 1.48 million bpd in December and 1.53 million bpd a year earlier.
The Indian rupee experienced its sharpest single-day decline in eight weeks, settling at 94.83 per dollar, primarily due to escalating crude oil prices and persistent risk-off sentiment driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and limited foreign inflows.
It, however, conceded that 20 per cent blending of ethanol with petrol leads to 3-5 per cent lower mileage in vehicles than conventional petrol, but said the blend offers a significantly higher octane rating, superior anti-knock properties, faster combustion, better pickup, smoother acceleration, and cleaner engine operation.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, following a ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, is expected to significantly ease India's crude oil supply risks, lower freight costs, and reduce inflationary pressures, as global oil prices have already dropped.
India is preoccupied with analysing the US sanctions, which may cut off India's access to discounted Russian crude and force it to buy at market prices.
At 5% customs duty, the govt will earn more than $3 bn
India is set to reduce its direct imports of Russian crude from late November, following new US sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil, effective November 21.
More than three months after RBI scrapped a long-standing payment mechanism used to pay for Iranian crude imports, India has resumed payments to the nation's second largest oil supplier using an alternative system.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has highlighted the risks posed by the 'weaponisation' of resources and strategic sea routes, urging India to achieve greater self-reliance in energy to mitigate vulnerabilities to overseas supplies and geopolitical tensions.
India has become a significant supplier of gasoline to Russia, with Indian refiners providing 1 million barrels in the last two months, as Ukrainian drone attacks severely disrupt Russia's domestic fuel production.
India's exports increased by 15.5 per cent to USD 40.41 billion in June, but the trade deficit significantly widened to a record USD 30.43 billion due to a 31 per cent surge in imports.
Analysts predict that the Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, the evolving situation in West Asia involving the US-Iran conflict, and crude oil prices will be the primary factors influencing investor sentiment in the Indian stock market this week.
India will restrict crude oil purchases from Russia as part of an agreement reached with the US in exchange for lower trade tariffs, sources said, adding imports will continue for now by refiners such as Nayara Energy, which have no other alternative source. US President Donald Trump announced overnight that the United States will cut the reciprocal tariff on imports of Indian goods to 18 per cent from 25 per cent under a broader bilateral understanding.
The public has benefited from this decline in crude oil, which has translated into lower prices of petrol and diesel.
India has refuted claims of payment issues hindering crude oil imports from Iran, clarifying that refiners have the flexibility to source oil from various global suppliers. The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas addressed reports of a tanker rerouting to China, emphasising standard industry practices and secured oil requirements.
Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, closed lower, primarily due to a sharp sell-off in IT stocks, a fresh surge in crude oil prices, and sustained outflows from foreign institutional investors. The Sensex dropped over 300 points, while the Nifty declined by 77.95 points.
The government has withdrawn most provisions of the emergency natural gas supply regulation order imposed during the West Asia conflict after liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments through the Strait of Hormuz resumed following a ceasefire.
The Kremlin has stated that India is free to purchase oil from any country, dismissing claims that India agreed to reduce Russian oil imports. Russia maintains that energy trade with India benefits both nations and contributes to international energy market stability.
Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi on Saturday criticised the United States over its stance on Russian oil, claiming Washington was now "begging" countries across the globe, including India, to purchase Russian crude.
The United States has announced it will not renew sanctions exemptions for the purchase of Russian and Iranian oil, ending a 30-day waiver that allowed some countries, including India, to continue importing Russian oil despite sanctions related to the Ukraine war.
Oil marketing companies (OMCs), paint manufacturers, tyre producers, and aviation stocks witnessed significant gains as Brent crude oil prices slipped below $70 per barrel. The price drop came after a double blow: The US imposed tariffs on Canada and Mexico, including energy imports, and OPEC+ - the group of major oil-producing nations including Russia - announced an output increase of 138,000 barrels per day, the first such hike since 2022.
'If you listen to a rowdy in a class, he will keep on bullying you.' 'India can say do whatever you want. We will not compromise on anything.'
The Indian government has dismissed concerns that the use of E20 fuel could affect the validity of vehicle insurance policies, stating that the ethanol blending programme remains safe, consumer-friendly, and economically beneficial.
Indian refiners are negotiating for additional crude cargoes from the US, Russia, and West Africa to ensure adequate supplies amid Middle East tensions. Refineries are maintaining normal processing rates and deferring maintenance to build reserves. The move comes as conflict impacts tanker movements through the Strait of Hormuz, a key energy transit route.
India will soon meet Iraq and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to seek a definitive rate of discount on crude oil similar to what Russia has provided so far, sources said. Multiple officials and industry executives said Iraq, which is India's biggest oil supplier, wants to discuss the level of discounts expected by Indian refiners. India's focus on snapping up ever-increasing volumes of Russian crude oil has led to a corresponding decline in imports from the Middle East. Flows from Iraq, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE have suffered as a result.
Petrol and diesel prices have been increased by Rs 3 per litre each, marking the first hike in over four years, as state-run fuel retailers pass on some of the impact from surging global crude prices, which have been exacerbated by the Iran war.
Maruti Suzuki India Ltd has launched the Wagon R, India's first flex-fuel car, capable of running on any blend of ethanol and petrol from E20 to E100, aligning with national energy security and sustainability goals.
Despite international crude oil rates crossing USD 100 per barrel due to Middle East tensions, the Indian government plans to maintain current petrol and diesel prices, ensuring uninterrupted fuel supply across the country.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has proposed immediate demand-side measures, including remote work, lower speed limits, and reduced air travel, to mitigate the impact of a global oil supply shock caused by Middle East disruptions.
Replacing over a third of India's oil imports at competitive rates is going to be a challenge, said traders from State refiners, even though some progress was made in the last two months.
India's wholesale price-based inflation (WPI) increased to 9.92 per cent in August, up from 9.78 per cent in July, primarily due to rising prices across food, manufactured items, and fuel and power sectors.
India's imports of crude oil from Russia touched a new high of 1.64 million barrels per day in March and is now double of the purchases from Iraq - the nation's traditional top oil supplier. But the purchases appear to have plateaued as growth has slowed. Russia continued to be the single largest supplier of crude oil, which is converted into petrol and diesel at refineries, for a sixth straight month by supplying more than one-third of all oil India imported, according to energy cargo tracker Vortexa.
When asked about Bessent's announcement allowing certain Russian oil sales to India and whether the US is considering any other moves, including tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), Trump said, "If there were some, I would do it just to take a little of the pressure off."
